IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON DEVELOPING THE NUMBER OF SMALL RUMINANTS IN MATROUH GOVERNORATE

Document Type : Review Article

Authors

1 Desert Research Center

2 Faculty of Commerce, Ain Shams University

Abstract

The research aimed to study the impact of climate changes on developing the number of small ruminants in Matrouh Governorate, data of climatic changes (the average of minimum temperature, the average of maximum temperatures, the average of rainfall), series data on developing the numbers of small ruminants at republic level and the total of desert’s governorates, and across Matrouh Governorate were used in conducting the research To achieve the research objectives, some statistical methods were used to achieve the results such as Percentages, Averages, Simple regression and multiple regressions.
The research concluded the following important results: The minimum temperatures decreased at a statistically significant rate by 0.04 degrees annually, the maximum temperatures increased at a statistically significant rate by 0.11 degrees annually, rainfall decreased by a rate of 0.23 mm per year, but the rate was not proven to be statistically significant during the period (1980-2017).
There was also a reduction in the number of small ruminants in Matrouh Governorate that reached around 17, 000 head per year during the period from (1991 - 2016). The area of rain fed barley decreased at a statistically significant rate by 1.500 feddans, which may be attributed to the fluctuation and absence of rainfall in many seasons during the period (2000 – 2016).
By using multiple regression to analyzing data, the results showed that the barley areas cultivated by rain was the only statistically significant variable that affected developing the number of small ruminants in Matrouh Governorate. It showed that a reduction of one thousand feddans led to a reduction in the number of small ruminant heads by 387 head. That can be attributed to the reduction in the rate of rainfall which contributed to decreasing the barley areas grown with rain since barley is the main feed for small ruminants, hence, the breeders had to feed them depending of purchased expensive feedings from markets with due to the lack of the green fodder and grasslands, consequently, breeders had to quit raising small ruminants and as a result the number of small ruminants started to decrease in Matrouh Governorate.

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