VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN EGYPT USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Document Type : Review Article

Authors

1 Institute of Environmental Studies & Research, Ain Shams University

2 Faculty of Science, Cairo University

3 University of Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

4 Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Cairo, Egypt

Abstract

Agriculture is considered as an essential economic driver in Egypt. It is an issue as a local food source, for international trade, the food industry and fiber manufacturing as well as water and land use. The climate change vulnerability of agriculture can be mainly attributed to parameters of the economy, society and the environment. Climate change will affect agricultural crop yields which consequently impact different food security domains, namely access to food, food supplies stability, food utilization and food production and trade. The aim of this research paper is to undertake an assessment of the impacts of climate change on agricultural crop yields and national sufficiency based on real observations and results obtained by previous research in Egypt. Both Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) have been used to generate climate projections up to 2050. Results indicate that climate model performance varies for different regions or processes under consideration; the Model ECHAM5 gives the best matching results to observations compared with other models. Climate change can exacerbate the food security crises that Egypt already faces, and without an urgent and comprehensive set of adaptation measures, Egypt may experience adverse impacts on more than one strategic crop.
Keywords: Climate Change, Global Circulation Models, Regional Circulation Models, mathematical computer models, temperature, Egypt.

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